Mental Models for Decision Making

Author: Prof. Eng. Carlos Serna II, PE MS LSSBB

The Importance of Mental Models in Decision Making

To make effective decisions and increase productivity, it is essential to understand and use mental models. The first fundamental rule is that nothing can truly be understood if you only remember isolated facts without connecting them within a theoretical-practical framework that is easy to comprehend. Data, when disorganized and without interpretation, is not only useless but can lead to disastrous and erroneous conclusions. Remember that decision-making ability is primarily based on acquired knowledge supported by executed experience.

A mental model is a subjective and cognitive structure that helps us organize and interpret data, appropriately transforming it into useful information, understanding situations, and making sustainable decisions. A mental model allows us to simplify the complexity of reality by focusing on the most critical and relevant aspects. Without mental models, reality can seem chaotic and unintelligible, but with them, we can simplify problems and find efficient and effective solutions.

The correct approach is not to become an expert in every discipline but to build a solid reference framework based on multiple mental models. The more models you understand, the greater your ability to analyze and solve problems in different areas of life. Essentially, models are constructed through knowledge and experience.

The Diversity of Mental Models: An Interdisciplinary Approach. Mental models should come from different fields of knowledge and diversified experience, as wisdom is not found in a single discipline or specific experience. Different problems require different and combined solutions, making an interdisciplinary mental framework crucial. If you rely only on one or two models, the human mind will tend to force reality to fit into those models, leading to biases and unintended errors.

Mastering multiple models broadens perspectives and reduces errors in decision-making. While it is not necessary to have in-depth knowledge of all disciplines, understanding the essential principles of the most relevant ones is fundamental. Mental models are not the primary components of mental maps. A mental map containing various mental models provides a heterogeneous vision of any phenomenon or real-world event.

Mental models do not operate in isolation; through their comparison and interaction, they generate highly diversified and effective mental maps. They complement and challenge each other, creating a more unified and precise view of reality. A single mental model is insufficient—a combination of diverse models offers a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of any situation.

Signal vs. Noise: Filtering Data for Productive Information Generation. One of the greatest challenges in decision-making is data overload. When there is too much information, it becomes difficult to distinguish between what is relevant (the signal) and what is irrelevant (the noise). A key mental model is learning to be selectively “deaf,” meaning ignoring irrelevant data and focusing only on what truly matters.

To achieve this, it is useful to apply specific mental models that help prioritize tasks and decisions effectively and efficiently. Below, we explore some of the most effective mental models for decision-making and productivity.

Key Mental Models for Decision Making and Productivity

1. Value Model: Focus on the Important, Not the Urgent. Not all urgent tasks are important. Prioritize those that generate significant value instead of reacting impulsively to immediate demands.

2. Relationship Model: Everything Is Connected. Every decision influences multiple areas. Before acting, analyze how a small action can create unintended ripple effects.

3. Flexibility Model: Adapt to Uncertainty. Uncertainty is inevitable, and adaptability increases resilience. The world is constantly changing, requiring dynamic and adaptive responses. Always opt for reversible and flexible decisions when possible.

4. Optimization Model: Prioritize Prevention Over Perfection. Rather than seeking the “perfect” solution, choose one that is functional and prevents problems before they occur. Chasing perfection can lead to analysis paralysis and decision-making delays.

5. 80-20% Model: Balance Between Information and Action. Do not make decisions with less than 80% of the necessary information, but also do not wait for 100% certainty—acting in a timely manner generates higher efficiency.

6. Regret Model: Eliminate “What Ifs”. Avoid thinking in terms of “I should have” or “I could have.” Criticizing past decisions after knowing their outcome is unproductive. Focus on rapid adaptation and real-time improvisation rather than regret.

7. Exception Model: Don’t Overweight Rare Events. Extremely rare events can be high-impact, but they should not dictate all decisions. Focus on what is predictable and manageable.

8 Equilibrium Model: Find Patterns, Avoid Extremes. Avoid extremes and seek real balance in data. Do not let temporary volatility obscure your analytical ability and judgment.

9. Standard Model. Exceptional results tend to revert to the mediocre norm over time. Do not assume that a recent trend will persist indefinitely or continue benefiting you forever. Every trend will eventually be replaced by another, driven by the one that requires the least energy, making it more efficient and effective—in other words, easier to occur. This follows the path of least resistance, which nature tends to adopt naturally. The principle of least action, attributed to Pierre Louis Maupertuis, states that in nature, every system evolves in the most efficient way possible, minimizing the amount of energy or effort required for its transformation.

10. Bayesian Thinking Model: Adjust Expectations with New Data. Instead of viewing events as isolated, use correlated probability to update predictions based on new and relevant information.

11. Darwin Model: Seek Truth Based on Evidence. Charles Darwin documented evidence against his own theories to avoid confirmation bias. Everything is falsifiable—always challenge your own beliefs using experimental evidence.

12. Systems Thinking Model: Look at the Big Picture. Problems do not exist in isolation. Analyze how different components interact within a larger system before making decisions.

13. Critical Review Model: Seek Peer Feedback. Expose your ideas to constructive criticism—this helps detect errors, refine arguments, and strengthen reasoning. Never trust only your own perspective.

14. Self-Reflection Model: Identify Personal Flaws. Assess yourself honestly before others point out your weaknesses. Self-awareness allows for continuous improvement.

15. Correlation vs. Causation Model: Avoid False Assumptions. Do not assume that two related events have a causal relationship. Identify patterns and the critical characteristics of a problem before taking action.

Conclusion: The Importance of an Integrated Approach.

Mental models not only help us better understand reality but also allow us to improve decision-making and productivity. The key is not to master all possible models, but to develop a broad and diverse set to tackle various situations with clarity and effectiveness.

Creating a mental map that includes multiple mental models prevents cognitive biases, enhances adaptability, and improves information interpretation. In the end, the goal is not to find a single perfect model, but to build a flexible and multidimensional thinking framework that allows us to make better decisions and successfully navigate an uncertain and complex world.